Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 55.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.32%), while for a Newcastle Jets win it was 1-2 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 55.7% ( | 22.19% ( | 22.1% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.55% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.5% ( | 41.5% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.1% ( | 63.9% ( |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.22% ( | 14.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.96% ( | 43.04% ( |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.54% ( | 32.46% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.01% ( | 68.98% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 9.87% ( 1-0 @ 9.17% ( 2-0 @ 8.77% ( 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 3-0 @ 5.59% ( 3-2 @ 3.54% ( 4-1 @ 3.01% ( 4-0 @ 2.67% ( 4-2 @ 1.69% 5-1 @ 1.15% ( 5-0 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 2.95% Total : 55.7% | 1-1 @ 10.32% ( 2-2 @ 5.55% ( 0-0 @ 4.8% ( 3-3 @ 1.33% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.19% | 1-2 @ 5.81% ( 0-1 @ 5.4% ( 0-2 @ 3.04% ( 1-3 @ 2.18% ( 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0-3 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 2.46% Total : 22.1% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 52 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 41 |
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 17 | 41 |
| 4 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 41 |
| 5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 32 |
| 6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 32 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 8 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
| 9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 28 |
| 10 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 27 |
| 11 | Macarthur | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 25 |
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