Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.44%. A win for Western United had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.31%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-0 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 28.67% ( | 24.89% ( | 46.44% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.22% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.32% ( | 47.68% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.12% ( | 69.88% ( |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.53% ( | 30.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.32% ( | 66.68% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.41% ( | 20.58% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.88% ( | 53.12% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 1-0 @ 7.45% ( 2-1 @ 7% ( 2-0 @ 4.43% ( 3-1 @ 2.77% ( 3-2 @ 2.19% ( 3-0 @ 1.76% ( Other @ 3.07% Total : 28.67% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( 0-0 @ 6.27% ( 2-2 @ 5.53% ( 3-3 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.89% | 0-1 @ 9.91% ( 1-2 @ 9.31% ( 0-2 @ 7.84% ( 1-3 @ 4.91% ( 0-3 @ 4.13% ( 2-3 @ 2.92% ( 1-4 @ 1.94% ( 0-4 @ 1.63% ( 2-4 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 2.71% Total : 46.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 40 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 34 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 31 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 31 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 27 |
| 7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 25 |
| 8 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 33 | -9 | 24 |
| 9 | Macarthur | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 24 |
| 10 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 23 |
| 11 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 20 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 18 |
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