Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 57.52%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 19.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (6.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mansfield Town | Draw | Newport County | 
| 57.52% (  0.24) | 23.22% (  -0.08) | 19.26% (  -0.16) | 
| Both teams to score 49.86% (  -0.03) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 50.4% (  0.1) | 49.6% (  -0.1) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 28.38% (  0.09) | 71.62% (  -0.09) | 
| Mansfield Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 83% (  0.12) | 16.99% (  -0.12) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.89% (  0.21) | 47.11% (  -0.21) | 
| Newport County Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 60.07% (  -0.12) | 39.93% (  0.12) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.41% (  -0.11) | 76.59% (  0.11) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Mansfield Town | Draw | Newport County | 
| 1-0 @ 12.02% 2-0 @ 10.65% (  0.04) 2-1 @ 9.78% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 6.3% (  0.05) 3-1 @ 5.78% (  0.03) 4-0 @ 2.79% (  0.03) 3-2 @ 2.65% (  0) 4-1 @ 2.56% (  0.02) 4-2 @ 1.18% (  0.01) 5-0 @ 0.99% (  0.02) 5-1 @ 0.91% (  0.01) Other @ 1.9% Total : 57.51% | 1-1 @ 11.04% (  -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.79% (  -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.49% (  -0.01) Other @ 0.9% Total : 23.22% | 0-1 @ 6.23% (  -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.07% (  -0.03) 0-2 @ 2.86% (  -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.55% (  -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.37% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.18% Total : 19.26% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | Leyton Orient | 42 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 56 | 29 | 27 | 84 | 
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 43 | 21 | 14 | 8 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 77 | 
| 3 | Stevenage | 42 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 76 | 
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 43 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 60 | 36 | 24 | 72 | 
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 43 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 72 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 42 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 36 | 18 | 71 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 43 | 20 | 9 | 14 | 66 | 49 | 17 | 69 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 42 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 67 | 51 | 16 | 69 | 
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 43 | 18 | 8 | 17 | 46 | 48 | -2 | 62 | 
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 43 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 57 | 
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 42 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 53 | 50 | 3 | 55 | 
| 12 | Grimsby Town | 42 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 55 | 
| 13 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 43 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 54 | 
| 14 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 43 | 15 | 7 | 21 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 52 | 
| 15 | Walsall | 43 | 11 | 18 | 14 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 51 | 
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 41 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 51 | 
| 17 | Gillingham | 43 | 13 | 12 | 18 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 51 | 
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 42 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 50 | 
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 43 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 47 | 
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 43 | 11 | 13 | 19 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 46 | 
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 42 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 45 | 
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 43 | 10 | 12 | 21 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 42 | 
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 43 | 8 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 74 | -26 | 39 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 43 | 8 | 10 | 25 | 41 | 67 | -26 | 34 | 
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