Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 61.62%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 16.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.34%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Harrogate Town win it was 0-1 (5.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Harrogate Town | 
| 61.62% (  0.05) | 21.8% (  -0.02) | 16.59% (  -0.03) | 
| Both teams to score 49.27% (  -0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 52.19% (  0.02) | 47.81% (  -0.02) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 30% (  0.02) | 70% (  -0.02) | 
| Carlisle United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 85% (  0.02) | 15% (  -0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.55% (  0.04) | 43.45% (  -0.04) | 
| Harrogate Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 57.96% (  -0.03) | 42.04% (  0.03) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.53% (  -0.02) | 78.47% (  0.02) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Carlisle United | Draw | Harrogate Town | 
| 1-0 @ 11.96% 2-0 @ 11.34% 2-1 @ 9.83% 3-0 @ 7.18% (  0.01) 3-1 @ 6.22% (  0) 4-0 @ 3.4% (  0.01) 4-1 @ 2.95% (  0.01) 3-2 @ 2.7% (  0) 5-0 @ 1.29% (  0) 4-2 @ 1.28% (  0) 5-1 @ 1.12% (  0) Other @ 2.34% Total : 61.61% | 1-1 @ 10.36% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.31% (  -0) 2-2 @ 4.26% (  -0) Other @ 0.86% Total : 21.79% | 0-1 @ 5.46% (  -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.49% (  -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.37% (  -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.3% (  -0) 2-3 @ 1.23% (  -0) Other @ 1.74% Total : 16.59% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 35 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 72 | 
| 2 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 35 | 23 | 64 | 
| 3 | Stevenage | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 31 | 18 | 63 | 
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 48 | 33 | 15 | 60 | 
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 36 | 17 | 8 | 11 | 49 | 31 | 18 | 59 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 35 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 59 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 41 | 13 | 56 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | 
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 36 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 55 | 
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 52 | 
| 11 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 35 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 50 | 
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 49 | 
| 13 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 48 | 
| 14 | Walsall | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 44 | 
| 15 | AFC Wimbledon | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 | 
| 16 | Grimsby Town | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 42 | 
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 34 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 42 | 
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 35 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 | 
| 19 | Gillingham | 35 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 38 | 
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 35 | 
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 36 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 35 | 
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 36 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 38 | 64 | -26 | 30 | 
| 23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 29 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 36 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 25 | 
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