Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 34.01% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 1-0 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Carlisle United in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Carlisle United.
| Result | ||
| Rochdale | Draw | Carlisle United | 
| 34.01% (  -0.01) | 26.65% (  0) | 39.34% (  0) | 
| Both teams to score 51.82% (  -0.02) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 46.87% (  -0.02) | 53.13% (  0.02) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 25.3% (  -0.02) | 74.7% (  0.02) | 
| Rochdale Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 70.42% (  -0.01) | 29.57% (  0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.39% (  -0.02) | 65.6% (  0.02) | 
| Carlisle United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.58% (  -0) | 26.42% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.41% (  -0.01) | 61.59% (  0.01) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Rochdale | Draw | Carlisle United | 
| 1-0 @ 9.52% (  0) 2-1 @ 7.72% (  -0) 2-0 @ 5.8% 3-1 @ 3.13% (  -0) 3-0 @ 2.36% (  -0) 3-2 @ 2.09% (  -0) 4-1 @ 0.96% (  -0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 34.01% | 1-1 @ 12.67% (  0.01) 0-0 @ 7.81% (  0.01) 2-2 @ 5.14% (  -0) 3-3 @ 0.93% (  -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.65% | 0-1 @ 10.4% (  0.01) 1-2 @ 8.43% (  -0) 0-2 @ 6.92% (  0) 1-3 @ 3.74% (  -0) 0-3 @ 3.07% (  0) 2-3 @ 2.28% (  -0) 1-4 @ 1.25% 0-4 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.23% Total : 39.34% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 70 | 
| 2 | Stevenage | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 57 | 
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 55 | 
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 54 | 
| 5 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 52 | 
| 6 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 52 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 49 | 
| 8 | Bradford CityBradford | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 29 | 8 | 48 | 
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 47 | 
| 10 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 31 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 46 | 
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 40 | 35 | 5 | 45 | 
| 12 | BarrowBarrow | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 44 | 
| 13 | Walsall | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 42 | 
| 14 | AFC Wimbledon | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 42 | 
| 15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 41 | 
| 16 | Newport CountyNewport | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 37 | 
| 17 | Grimsby Town | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 37 | 
| 18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 31 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 37 | 
| 19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 35 | 
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 30 | 
| 21 | Gillingham | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 30 | 
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 33 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 27 | 
| 23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 26 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 33 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 21 | 
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