Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Doncaster Rovers win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Doncaster Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.41%) and 2-1 (8.29%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (10.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Doncaster Rovers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Doncaster Rovers | Draw | Rochdale |
| 42.63% ( | 28.42% ( | 28.95% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.9% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.96% ( | 61.04% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.97% ( | 81.02% ( |
| Doncaster Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.65% ( | 28.35% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.91% ( | 64.08% ( |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.67% ( | 37.33% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.89% ( | 74.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Doncaster Rovers | Draw | Rochdale |
| 1-0 @ 13.33% ( 2-0 @ 8.41% ( 2-1 @ 8.29% ( 3-0 @ 3.53% ( 3-1 @ 3.48% ( 3-2 @ 1.72% ( 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 4-1 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 1.66% Total : 42.62% | 1-1 @ 13.14% ( 0-0 @ 10.58% ( 2-2 @ 4.08% ( Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.41% | 0-1 @ 10.42% ( 1-2 @ 6.48% ( 0-2 @ 5.14% ( 1-3 @ 2.13% ( 0-3 @ 1.69% ( 2-3 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 1.75% Total : 28.94% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 17 | 22 | 63 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 56 |
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 28 | 20 | 51 |
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 50 |
| 5 | Salford City | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 48 |
| 6 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 43 |
| 7 | Stockport CountyStockport | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 39 | 27 | 12 | 42 |
| 8 | Swindon TownSwindon | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 42 |
| 9 | Bradford CityBradford | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 42 |
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 40 |
| 12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | AFC Wimbledon | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 39 |
| 14 | Walsall | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 38 |
| 15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
| 16 | Grimsby Town | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 33 |
| 17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 31 |
| 18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 31 |
| 19 | Newport CountyNewport | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 27 |
| 21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 25 |
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 25 |
| 23 | Gillingham | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 31 | -16 | 24 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 29 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 20 |
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