Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 42.9%. A win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Shrewsbury Town win was 1-0 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Shrewsbury Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Shrewsbury Town | Draw | Port Vale | 
| 30.11% (  0) | 26.99% (  0) | 42.9% (  -0.01) | 
| Both teams to score 49.48% (  -0.01) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 44.49% (  -0.01) | 55.51% (  0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 23.31% (  -0.01) | 76.69% (  0.01) | 
| Shrewsbury Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 66.53% (  -0) | 33.47% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.9% (  -0) | 70.1% (  -0) | 
| Port Vale Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 74.37% (  -0.01) | 25.62% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.48% (  -0.01) | 60.51% (  0.01) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Shrewsbury Town | Draw | Port Vale | 
| 1-0 @ 9.39% (  0) 2-1 @ 7% 2-0 @ 5.14% (  0) 3-1 @ 2.55% 3-0 @ 1.88% (  0) 3-2 @ 1.74% Other @ 2.43% Total : 30.11% | 1-1 @ 12.78% 0-0 @ 8.58% (  0) 2-2 @ 4.76% (  -0) Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.98% | 0-1 @ 11.67% 1-2 @ 8.7% (  -0) 0-2 @ 7.95% 1-3 @ 3.95% (  -0) 0-3 @ 3.61% (  -0) 2-3 @ 2.16% 1-4 @ 1.34% (  -0) 0-4 @ 1.23% (  -0) Other @ 2.28% Total : 42.89% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 61 | 22 | 39 | 77 | 
| 2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 36 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 74 | 
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 36 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 70 | 31 | 39 | 72 | 
| 4 | Barnsley | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 55 | 29 | 26 | 66 | 
| 5 | Derby CountyDerby | 36 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 59 | 35 | 24 | 64 | 
| 6 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 63 | 
| 7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 35 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 57 | 
| 8 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 36 | 16 | 7 | 13 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 55 | 
| 9 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 35 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 54 | 
| 10 | Portsmouth | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 51 | 
| 11 | Exeter CityExeter | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 47 | 45 | 2 | 46 | 
| 12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 35 | 9 | 18 | 8 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 45 | 
| 13 | Bristol Rovers | 35 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 45 | 
| 14 | Port Vale | 36 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 44 | 
| 15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 43 | 
| 16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 42 | 
| 17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 29 | 46 | -17 | 40 | 
| 18 | Burton Albion | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 | 
| 19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 36 | 
| 20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 35 | 
| 21 | Morecambe | 36 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 33 | 
| 22 | MK Dons | 36 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 33 | 
| 23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 27 | 57 | -30 | 30 | 
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 36 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 69 | -41 | 23 | 
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