Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.12%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Wycombe Wanderers had a probability of 25.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%), while for a Wycombe Wanderers win it was 1-0 (8.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wycombe Wanderers | Draw | Derby County |
| 25.75% ( | 26.12% ( | 48.12% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.17% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.46% ( | 54.53% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.11% ( | 75.88% ( |
| Wycombe Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.59% ( | 36.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.8% ( | 73.2% ( |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.32% ( | 22.68% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.67% ( | 56.32% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Wycombe Wanderers | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 8.34% ( 2-1 @ 6.25% ( 2-0 @ 4.21% ( 3-1 @ 2.11% ( 3-2 @ 1.56% ( 3-0 @ 1.42% ( Other @ 1.86% Total : 25.75% | 1-1 @ 12.37% ( 0-0 @ 8.26% ( 2-2 @ 4.64% ( Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.11% | 0-1 @ 12.25% ( 1-2 @ 9.18% ( 0-2 @ 9.09% ( 1-3 @ 4.54% ( 0-3 @ 4.5% ( 2-3 @ 2.3% ( 1-4 @ 1.69% ( 0-4 @ 1.67% ( Other @ 2.91% Total : 48.12% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 61 | 22 | 39 | 77 |
| 2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 36 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 74 |
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 36 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 70 | 31 | 39 | 72 |
| 4 | Barnsley | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 55 | 29 | 26 | 66 |
| 5 | Derby CountyDerby | 36 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 59 | 35 | 24 | 64 |
| 6 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 63 |
| 7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 35 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 57 |
| 8 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 36 | 16 | 7 | 13 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 55 |
| 9 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 35 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 54 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 51 |
| 11 | Exeter CityExeter | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 47 | 45 | 2 | 46 |
| 12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 35 | 9 | 18 | 8 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 45 |
| 13 | Bristol Rovers | 35 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 45 |
| 14 | Port Vale | 36 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 44 |
| 15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 43 |
| 16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 42 |
| 17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 29 | 46 | -17 | 40 |
| 18 | Burton Albion | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 36 |
| 20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 35 |
| 21 | Morecambe | 36 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 33 |
| 22 | MK Dons | 36 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 33 |
| 23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 27 | 57 | -30 | 30 |
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 36 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 69 | -41 | 23 |
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