Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 24.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Bolton Wanderers | 
| 51.03% ( | 24.73% ( | 24.24% ( | 
| Both teams to score 51.9% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 49.76% ( | 50.24% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 27.8% ( | 72.2% ( | 
| Derby County Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 80.31% ( | 19.69% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.32% ( | 51.68% ( | 
| Bolton Wanderers Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 64.62% ( | 35.38% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.86% ( | 72.14% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Derby County | Draw | Bolton Wanderers | 
| 1-0 @ 11.32% 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 2-0 @ 9.2% ( 3-1 @ 5.18% ( 3-0 @ 4.98% ( 3-2 @ 2.69% ( 4-1 @ 2.1% ( 4-0 @ 2.03% ( 4-2 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 2.88% Total : 51.03%  | 1-1 @ 11.76% 0-0 @ 6.97% ( 2-2 @ 4.97% ( 3-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.73%  | 0-1 @ 7.24% ( 1-2 @ 6.11% 0-2 @ 3.76% ( 1-3 @ 2.12% 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0-3 @ 1.3% Other @ 2% Total : 24.24%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 31 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 58 | 22 | 36 | 68 | 
| 2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 32 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 32 | 25 | 68 | 
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 32 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 60 | 
| 4 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 59 | 
| 5 | Derby CountyDerby | 31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 57 | 
| 6 | Barnsley | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 56 | 
| 7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 31 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 29 | 15 | 53 | 
| 8 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 32 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 39 | 34 | 5 | 48 | 
| 9 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 30 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 47 | 
| 10 | Portsmouth | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 42 | 
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 40 | 
| 12 | Port Vale | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 40 | 
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 39 | 
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 39 | 
| 15 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 30 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 39 | 
| 16 | Bristol Rovers | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 38 | 
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 36 | 
| 18 | Burton Albion | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 34 | 
| 19 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 33 | 
| 20 | Morecambe | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 52 | -19 | 31 | 
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 26 | 47 | -21 | 30 | 
| 22 | MK Dons | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 29 | 
| 23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 29 | 
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 22 | 
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