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Bolton logo
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Cheltenham Town
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Lincoln City
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Morecambe
Oxford United
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Shrewsbury Town
Wycombe Wanderers
Jan 21, 2023 at 3pm UK at Pride Park Stadium
Derby
2 - 1
Bolton
Mendez-Laing (16'), Hourihane (72')
Hourihane (45+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Sadlier (90+3')
Johnston (16')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Bolton Wanderers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Derby County 1-1 Bolton Wanderers

As the league table suggests, there is very little to separate Derby and Bolton at the moment, and both sides head into this clash on impressive unbeaten streaks.    Derby boast the second-best defensive record in the division, while Bolton have the third-best defensive record, meaning Saturday's game should be a low-scoring affair, with both teams looking to preserve their respective unbeaten runs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 24.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBolton Wanderers
51.03% (0.007000000000005 0.01) 24.73% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 24.24% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Both teams to score 51.9% (0.012 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.76% (0.018000000000001 0.02)50.24% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (0.015000000000001 0.02)72.2% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.31% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)19.69% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.32% (0.015999999999998 0.02)51.68% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.62% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)35.38% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.86% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)72.14% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 51.03%
    Bolton Wanderers 24.24%
    Draw 24.73%
Derby CountyDrawBolton Wanderers
1-0 @ 11.32%
2-1 @ 9.56% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.2% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 5.18% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 4.98% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.69% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 2.1% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 2.03% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.09% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 51.03%
1-1 @ 11.76%
0-0 @ 6.97% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-2 @ 4.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.73%
0-1 @ 7.24% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 6.11%
0-2 @ 3.76% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 2.12%
2-3 @ 1.72% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.3%
Other @ 2%
Total : 24.24%

How you voted: Derby vs Bolton

Derby County
60.9%
Draw
26.1%
Bolton Wanderers
13.0%
23
Head to Head
Dec 27, 2022 3pm
Apr 13, 2019 3pm
Derby
4-0
Bolton
Bryson (37'), Mount (45', 55', 82')
Johnson (28')

Ameobi (31')
Sep 29, 2018 3pm
Bolton
1-0
Derby
Noone (10')
Magennis (25'), Olkowski (28'), Lowe (45')

Johnson (44')
Apr 7, 2018 3pm
Derby
3-0
Bolton
Pearce (6'), Vydra (33'), Lawrence (54')
Baird (80')

le Fondre (78')
Aug 19, 2017 3pm
Bolton
1-2
Derby
Madine (92')
Karacan (35'), Beevers (57')
Nugent (8', 21')
Wisdom (79')
rhs 2.0
Todays Game Header Right
Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds31208358223668
2Plymouth ArgylePlymouth32208457322568
3Ipswich TownIpswich321612460312960
4Bolton WanderersBolton33178848242459
5Derby CountyDerby31169650252557
6Barnsley30175845271856
7Wycombe WanderersWycombe311651044291553
8Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury32146123934548
9Peterborough UnitedPeterborough301521348381047
10Portsmouth30101283736142
11Charlton AthleticCharlton311010114543240
12Port Vale33117153347-1440
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood32912113534139
14Exeter CityExeter32109134243-139
15Lincoln CityLincoln3081572931-239
16Bristol Rovers32108144455-1138
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd3399153641-536
18Burton Albion3197154058-1834
19Cheltenham TownCheltenham3196162540-1533
20Morecambe32710153352-1931
21Accrington StanleyAccrington3079142647-2130
22MK Dons3285193051-2129
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge3285192652-2629
24Forest Green RoversForest Green3357212563-3822

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