

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 46.43%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-2 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Boavista in this match.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 46.43% ( | 24.37% ( | 29.2% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.3% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.89% ( | 45.11% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.54% ( | 67.46% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.46% ( | 19.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.55% ( | 51.45% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.22% ( | 28.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.37% ( | 64.63% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Boavista | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 1-0 @ 9.18% ( 2-0 @ 7.5% ( 3-1 @ 5.08% ( 3-0 @ 4.08% ( 3-2 @ 3.16% ( 4-1 @ 2.07% ( 4-0 @ 1.67% ( 4-2 @ 1.29% ( Other @ 3.07% Total : 46.43% | 1-1 @ 11.43% ( 2-2 @ 5.81% ( 0-0 @ 5.63% ( 3-3 @ 1.31% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.36% | 1-2 @ 7.12% ( 0-1 @ 7.01% ( 0-2 @ 4.36% ( 1-3 @ 2.96% ( 2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0-3 @ 1.81% ( 1-4 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.6% Total : 29.2% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 12 | 32 | 51 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 49 |
| 3 | Porto | 20 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 45 |
| 4 | Braga | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 40 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 35 |
| 7 | SC FarenseFarense | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 26 |
| 8 | AroucaArouca | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 25 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 24 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 23 |
| 11 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 21 |
| 13 | Estrela Amadora | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 21 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 21 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 20 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 18 |
| 17 | ChavesChaves | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 14 |
| 18 | Vizela | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 13 |
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