

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 67.63%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 13.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.77%) and 1-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.64%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 1-2 (3.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 67.63% ( | 18.48% ( | 13.89% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.87% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.6% ( | 38.4% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.31% ( | 60.68% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.57% ( | 10.43% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 66% ( | 34% ( |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.14% ( | 39.86% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.48% ( | 76.52% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 2-0 @ 10.62% ( 2-1 @ 9.77% ( 1-0 @ 9.4% ( 3-0 @ 8% ( 3-1 @ 7.36% ( 4-0 @ 4.52% ( 4-1 @ 4.16% ( 3-2 @ 3.39% ( 5-0 @ 2.05% ( 4-2 @ 1.91% ( 5-1 @ 1.88% ( Other @ 4.57% Total : 67.63% | 1-1 @ 8.64% ( 2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0-0 @ 4.16% ( 3-3 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 18.48% | 1-2 @ 3.98% ( 0-1 @ 3.82% ( 0-2 @ 1.76% ( 2-3 @ 1.38% ( 1-3 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 1.74% Total : 13.89% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 75 | 24 | 51 | 69 |
| 2 | Benfica | 28 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 23 | 46 | 68 |
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 25 | 30 | 59 |
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 57 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 46 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 43 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 40 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 35 |
| 11 | Nacional | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 29 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 29 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 18 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 47 | -28 | 18 |
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