Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 65.44%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 14.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.04%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 1-0 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Sporting Lisbon | 
| 14.14% | 20.42% | 65.44% | 
| Both teams to score 47.91% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 53.37% | 46.63% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 31.1% | 68.9% | 
| Santa Clara Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 55.34% | 44.66% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.34% | 80.66% | 
| Sporting Lisbon Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 86.57% | 13.44% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.59% | 40.41% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Santa Clara | Draw | Sporting Lisbon | 
| 1-0 @ 4.84% 2-1 @ 3.91% 2-0 @ 1.95% 3-2 @ 1.06% 3-1 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.34% Total : 14.14% | 1-1 @ 9.71% 0-0 @ 6% 2-2 @ 3.93% Other @ 0.78% Total : 20.42% | 0-2 @ 12.08% 0-1 @ 12.04% 1-2 @ 9.74% 0-3 @ 8.09% 1-3 @ 6.52% 0-4 @ 4.06% 1-4 @ 3.27% 2-3 @ 2.63% 0-5 @ 1.63% 2-4 @ 1.32% 1-5 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.73% Total : 65.43% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 | 
| 2 | Porto | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 58 | 
| 3 | Braga | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 56 | 
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 | 
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 | 
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 | 
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 | 
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 | 
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 33 | 
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 | 
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 | 
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 29 | 
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 | 
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 | 
| 16 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 | 
| 17 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 | 
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 | 
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