

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 77.2%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 8.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.3%) and 1-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (2.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Nacional |
| 77.2% ( | 14.42% ( | 8.39% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.83% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.21% ( | 34.79% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.25% ( | 56.75% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.64% | 7.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.44% ( | 26.56% ( |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.71% ( | 47.29% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.3% ( | 82.7% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Nacional |
| 2-0 @ 11.84% ( 3-0 @ 10.3% ( 1-0 @ 9.08% ( 2-1 @ 8.87% ( 3-1 @ 7.72% ( 4-0 @ 6.72% ( 4-1 @ 5.03% ( 5-0 @ 3.51% ( 3-2 @ 2.89% ( 5-1 @ 2.63% ( 4-2 @ 1.89% ( 6-0 @ 1.53% ( 6-1 @ 1.14% ( 5-2 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 3.07% Total : 77.19% | 1-1 @ 6.8% ( 0-0 @ 3.48% ( 2-2 @ 3.32% ( Other @ 0.82% Total : 14.42% | 0-1 @ 2.61% ( 1-2 @ 2.55% ( 0-2 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.26% Total : 8.39% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 64 | 21 | 43 | 56 |
| 2 | Benfica | 23 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 53 |
| 3 | Porto | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 30 | 50 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 47 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 39 |
| 6 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 36 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 31 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 29 |
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 27 |
| 12 | Nacional | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 25 |
| 14 | AVS | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 22 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 22 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 16 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 15 |
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
