

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 55.68%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 22.3% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (5.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | Heracles |
| 55.68% ( | 22.02% ( | 22.3% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.42% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.52% ( | 40.48% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.14% ( | 62.86% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.56% ( | 14.44% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.61% ( | 42.39% ( |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.28% ( | 31.72% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.86% ( | 68.14% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 1-0 @ 8.86% ( 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 3-1 @ 6.35% ( 3-0 @ 5.53% ( 3-2 @ 3.65% ( 4-1 @ 3.07% ( 4-0 @ 2.68% ( 4-2 @ 1.76% ( 5-1 @ 1.19% ( 5-0 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 3.13% Total : 55.68% | 1-1 @ 10.17% ( 2-2 @ 5.65% ( 0-0 @ 4.58% ( 3-3 @ 1.4% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.01% | 1-2 @ 5.84% ( 0-1 @ 5.26% ( 0-2 @ 3.02% ( 1-3 @ 2.24% ( 2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0-3 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 2.62% Total : 22.3% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 25 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 63 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 55 |
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 46 |
| 5 | Feyenoord | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 44 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 24 | 16 | 43 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 40 | 6 | 41 |
| 8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 32 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 30 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 29 |
| 11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 29 |
| 12 | Groningen | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 28 |
| 13 | Heracles | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 27 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 25 |
| 15 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 24 |
| 16 | Willem II | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 24 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 17 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 50 | -34 | 15 |
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