
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 44.93%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for AVS had a probability of 26.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.31%) and 1-2 (8.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.06%), while for an AVS win it was 1-0 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Santa Clara in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Santa Clara.
| Result | ||
| AVS | Draw | Santa Clara | 
| 26.03% (  0.32) | 29.03% (  -0.04) | 44.93% (  -0.28) | 
| Both teams to score 41.67% (  0.33) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 35.77% (  0.29) | 64.23% (  -0.29) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 16.65% (  0.21) | 83.34% (  -0.21) | 
| AVS Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 58.41% (  0.46) | 41.59% (  -0.46) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.92% (  0.4) | 78.08% (  -0.4) | 
| Santa Clara Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 71.35% (  -0.01) | 28.65% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.53% (  -0.01) | 64.46% (  0.01) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| AVS | Draw | Santa Clara | 
| 1-0 @ 10.45% (  0.02) 2-1 @ 5.73% (  0.08) 2-0 @ 4.59% (  0.07) 3-1 @ 1.68% (  0.04) 3-0 @ 1.34% (  0.04) 3-2 @ 1.05% (  0.03) Other @ 1.2% Total : 26.03% | 1-1 @ 13.06% (  0.02) 0-0 @ 11.91% (  -0.13) 2-2 @ 3.58% (  0.05) Other @ 0.47% Total : 29.02% | 0-1 @ 14.89% (  -0.16) 0-2 @ 9.31% (  -0.1) 1-2 @ 8.17% (  0.01) 0-3 @ 3.88% (  -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.4% (  0) 2-3 @ 1.49% (  0.02) 0-4 @ 1.21% (  -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.06% (  0) Other @ 1.51% Total : 44.93% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 25 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 67 | 22 | 45 | 59 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 18 | 38 | 56 | 
| 3 | Porto | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 20 | 29 | 50 | 
| 4 | Braga | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 22 | 19 | 50 | 
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 40 | 
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 38 | 
| 7 | Casa Pia | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 36 | 
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 35 | 
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 34 | 
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 29 | 
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 28 | 
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 28 | 
| 13 | Nacional | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 26 | 
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 23 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 23 | 
| 16 | AVS | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 23 | 
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 25 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 17 | 
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 42 | -26 | 15 | 
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