
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AVS win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 29.79% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AVS win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (8.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | AVS | 
| 29.79% (  -0.06) | 26.56% (  0.04) | 43.65% (  0.02) | 
| Both teams to score 50.61% (  -0.14) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 46.01% (  -0.17) | 53.98% (  0.17) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 24.57% (  -0.14) | 75.43% (  0.14) | 
| Moreirense Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 67.09% (  -0.13) | 32.91% (  0.13) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.51% (  -0.15) | 69.49% (  0.15) | 
| AVS Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.44% (  -0.06) | 24.56% (  0.07) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.96% (  -0.09) | 59.04% (  0.09) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Moreirense | Draw | AVS | 
| 1-0 @ 8.98% (  0.03) 2-1 @ 7.01% (  -0.02) 2-0 @ 4.99% (  -0) 3-1 @ 2.6% (  -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.85% (  -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.82% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.54% Total : 29.79% | 1-1 @ 12.61% (  0.02) 0-0 @ 8.08% (  0.05) 2-2 @ 4.92% (  -0.02) Other @ 0.94% Total : 26.55% | 0-1 @ 11.34% (  0.05) 1-2 @ 8.86% (  -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.97% (  0.02) 1-3 @ 4.14% (  -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.73% (  0) 2-3 @ 2.3% (  -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.46% (  -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.31% (  -0) Other @ 2.54% Total : 43.64% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 61 | 82 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 80 | 
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 30 | 35 | 71 | 
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 66 | 
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 57 | 
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 54 | 
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 | 
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 46 | 
| 9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 | 
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 40 | 
| 11 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 38 | 
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 | 
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 | 
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 34 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 29 | 
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 | 
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 27 | 
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 59 | -35 | 24 | 
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