
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AVS win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 29.79% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AVS win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (8.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | AVS |
| 29.79% ( | 26.56% ( | 43.65% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.61% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.01% ( | 53.98% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.57% ( | 75.43% ( |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.09% ( | 32.91% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.51% ( | 69.49% ( |
| AVS Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.44% ( | 24.56% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.96% ( | 59.04% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | AVS |
| 1-0 @ 8.98% ( 2-1 @ 7.01% ( 2-0 @ 4.99% ( 3-1 @ 2.6% ( 3-0 @ 1.85% ( 3-2 @ 1.82% ( Other @ 2.54% Total : 29.79% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( 0-0 @ 8.08% ( 2-2 @ 4.92% ( Other @ 0.94% Total : 26.55% | 0-1 @ 11.34% ( 1-2 @ 8.86% ( 0-2 @ 7.97% ( 1-3 @ 4.14% ( 0-3 @ 3.73% ( 2-3 @ 2.3% ( 1-4 @ 1.46% ( 0-4 @ 1.31% ( Other @ 2.54% Total : 43.64% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 61 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 80 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 30 | 35 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 66 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 57 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 46 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 38 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 59 | -35 | 24 |
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