

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 52.99%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 21.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 52.99% ( | 25.65% ( | 21.36% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.91% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.56% ( | 56.44% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.55% ( | 77.44% ( |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.64% ( | 21.35% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.68% ( | 54.32% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.37% ( | 41.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.89% ( | 78.11% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Santa Clara | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 1-0 @ 13.72% ( 2-0 @ 10.59% ( 2-1 @ 9.29% ( 3-0 @ 5.45% ( 3-1 @ 4.78% ( 4-0 @ 2.11% ( 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 4-1 @ 1.85% ( Other @ 3.11% Total : 52.98% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0-0 @ 8.89% ( 2-2 @ 4.07% ( Other @ 0.67% Total : 25.64% | 0-1 @ 7.79% ( 1-2 @ 5.27% ( 0-2 @ 3.41% ( 1-3 @ 1.54% ( 2-3 @ 1.19% ( 0-3 @ 1% ( Other @ 1.15% Total : 21.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 64 | 21 | 43 | 56 |
| 2 | Benfica | 23 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 18 | 35 | 53 |
| 3 | Porto | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 30 | 50 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 47 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 39 |
| 6 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 36 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 31 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 29 |
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 27 |
| 12 | Nacional | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 25 |
| 14 | AVS | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 22 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 22 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 16 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 15 |
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