

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 81.33%. A draw had a probability of 12.1% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 6.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.72%) and 2-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.62%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (2.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Union Berlin |
| 81.33% ( | 12.07% ( | 6.6% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.17% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.33% ( | 29.66% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.21% ( | 50.78% ( |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.49% ( | 5.5% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 78.54% ( | 21.46% ( |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.04% ( | 47.96% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 16.79% ( | 83.2% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Union Berlin |
| 2-0 @ 11.09% 3-0 @ 10.72% 2-1 @ 8.15% ( 3-1 @ 7.88% 4-0 @ 7.78% ( 1-0 @ 7.65% ( 4-1 @ 5.71% ( 5-0 @ 4.51% ( 5-1 @ 3.31% ( 3-2 @ 2.9% ( 6-0 @ 2.18% ( 4-2 @ 2.1% 6-1 @ 1.6% ( 5-2 @ 1.22% ( 7-0 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 3.6% Total : 81.31% | 1-1 @ 5.62% ( 2-2 @ 3% ( 0-0 @ 2.64% ( Other @ 0.81% Total : 12.07% | 1-2 @ 2.07% ( 0-1 @ 1.94% ( Other @ 2.6% Total : 6.6% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 25 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 74 | 23 | 51 | 61 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Mainz 05Mainz | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 44 |
| 4 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 42 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 41 |
| 6 | RB Leipzig | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 39 |
| 7 | Wolfsburg | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 38 |
| 8 | Stuttgart | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 37 |
| 9 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 37 |
| 10 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 35 |
| 11 | Augsburg | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 35 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 33 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 27 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 | St Pauli | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 25 |
| 16 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 18 |
| 17 | Holstein Kiel | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 61 | -24 | 17 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 28 | 51 | -23 | 16 |
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