

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 32.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Morecambe | Draw | Barrow |
| 32.81% ( | 25.17% ( | 42.02% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.38% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.9% ( | 47.1% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.66% ( | 69.34% ( |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.61% ( | 27.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.15% ( | 62.85% ( |
| Barrow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.65% ( | 22.35% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.16% ( | 55.84% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Morecambe | Draw | Barrow |
| 1-0 @ 7.93% ( 2-1 @ 7.69% ( 2-0 @ 5.13% ( 3-1 @ 3.32% ( 3-2 @ 2.49% ( 3-0 @ 2.22% ( 4-1 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.96% Total : 32.81% | 1-1 @ 11.87% ( 0-0 @ 6.12% ( 2-2 @ 5.76% ( 3-3 @ 1.24% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.16% | 0-1 @ 9.17% ( 1-2 @ 8.9% ( 0-2 @ 6.87% ( 1-3 @ 4.44% ( 0-3 @ 3.43% ( 2-3 @ 2.88% ( 1-4 @ 1.67% ( 0-4 @ 1.29% ( 2-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.3% Total : 42.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Walsall | 37 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 69 |
| 2 | Bradford CityBradford | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 66 |
| 3 | AFC Wimbledon | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 49 | 26 | 23 | 63 |
| 4 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 54 | 44 | 10 | 63 |
| 5 | Notts County | 37 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 56 | 39 | 17 | 61 |
| 6 | Port Vale | 36 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 61 |
| 7 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 45 | 33 | 12 | 58 |
| 8 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 57 |
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 37 | 17 | 5 | 15 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 56 |
| 10 | Salford City | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 44 | 41 | 3 | 53 |
| 11 | Bromley | 37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 52 |
| 12 | Chesterfield | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 51 |
| 13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 50 |
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 37 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 49 | 46 | 3 | 49 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 55 | 55 | 0 | 47 |
| 16 | Newport CountyNewport | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 46 |
| 17 | BarrowBarrow | 36 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 44 |
| 18 | MK Dons | 36 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 42 |
| 20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 40 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 40 |
| 22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 55 | -27 | 36 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 37 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 33 | 56 | -23 | 30 |
| 24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 36 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 26 | 53 | -27 | 27 |
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