Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 39.73%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 39.73% ( | 24.8% ( | 35.47% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.31% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.12% ( | 44.88% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.76% ( | 67.23% ( |
| Harrogate Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.49% ( | 22.5% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.93% ( | 56.07% ( |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.25% ( | 24.75% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.69% ( | 59.31% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 2-1 @ 8.65% ( 1-0 @ 8.31% ( 2-0 @ 6.2% ( 3-1 @ 4.3% ( 3-0 @ 3.08% ( 3-2 @ 3% ( 4-1 @ 1.6% ( 4-0 @ 1.15% ( 4-2 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 2.32% Total : 39.73% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( 2-2 @ 6.04% ( 0-0 @ 5.57% ( 3-3 @ 1.4% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.8% | 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0-1 @ 7.78% ( 0-2 @ 5.43% ( 1-3 @ 3.77% ( 2-3 @ 2.81% ( 0-3 @ 2.53% ( 1-4 @ 1.32% ( 2-4 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.76% Total : 35.47% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Walsall | 37 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 69 |
| 2 | Bradford CityBradford | 36 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 66 |
| 3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 54 | 44 | 10 | 63 |
| 4 | Notts County | 36 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 61 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 25 | 22 | 60 |
| 6 | Port Vale | 35 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 44 | 37 | 7 | 58 |
| 7 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 57 |
| 8 | Grimsby Town | 36 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 51 | 53 | -2 | 56 |
| 9 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 36 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 55 |
| 10 | Bromley | 37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 52 |
| 11 | Salford City | 36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 50 |
| 12 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 50 |
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 36 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 49 |
| 14 | Chesterfield | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 56 | 43 | 13 | 48 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 55 | 55 | 0 | 47 |
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 43 |
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 43 |
| 18 | MK Dons | 35 | 12 | 6 | 17 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 42 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 41 |
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 40 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 39 |
| 22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 36 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 33 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 36 | 8 | 5 | 23 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 29 |
| 24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 35 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25 | 51 | -26 | 27 |
| > League Two Full Table | |||||||||
