Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 39.73%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Newport County | 
| 39.73% (  3.33) | 24.8% (  -0.04) | 35.47% (  -3.29) | 
| Both teams to score 58.31% (  0.02) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 55.12% (  0.07) | 44.88% (  -0.07) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 32.76% (  0.07) | 67.23% (  -0.07) | 
| Harrogate Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 77.49% (  1.76) | 22.5% (  -1.76) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.93% (  2.56) | 56.07% (  -2.56) | 
| Newport County Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.25% (  -1.73) | 24.75% (  1.73) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.69% (  -2.48) | 59.31% (  2.48) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Newport County | 
| 2-1 @ 8.65% (  0.42) 1-0 @ 8.31% (  0.4) 2-0 @ 6.2% (  0.59) 3-1 @ 4.3% (  0.42) 3-0 @ 3.08% (  0.44) 3-2 @ 3% (  0.15) 4-1 @ 1.6% (  0.23) 4-0 @ 1.15% (  0.21) 4-2 @ 1.12% (  0.11) Other @ 2.32% Total : 39.73% | 1-1 @ 11.6% (  -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.04% (  -0) 0-0 @ 5.57% (  -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.4% (  0) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.8% | 1-2 @ 8.1% (  -0.43) 0-1 @ 7.78% (  -0.43) 0-2 @ 5.43% (  -0.6) 1-3 @ 3.77% (  -0.41) 2-3 @ 2.81% (  -0.15) 0-3 @ 2.53% (  -0.42) 1-4 @ 1.32% (  -0.22) 2-4 @ 0.98% (  -0.11) Other @ 2.76% Total : 35.47% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Walsall | 37 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 69 | 
| 2 | Bradford CityBradford | 36 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 66 | 
| 3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 54 | 44 | 10 | 63 | 
| 4 | Notts County | 36 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 61 | 
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 25 | 22 | 60 | 
| 6 | Port Vale | 35 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 44 | 37 | 7 | 58 | 
| 7 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 57 | 
| 8 | Grimsby Town | 36 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 51 | 53 | -2 | 56 | 
| 9 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 36 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 55 | 
| 10 | Bromley | 37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 52 | 
| 11 | Salford City | 36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 50 | 
| 12 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 50 | 
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 36 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 49 | 
| 14 | Chesterfield | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 56 | 43 | 13 | 48 | 
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 55 | 55 | 0 | 47 | 
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 43 | 
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 43 | 
| 18 | MK Dons | 35 | 12 | 6 | 17 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 42 | 
| 19 | Gillingham | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 41 | 
| 20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 40 | 
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 39 | 
| 22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 36 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 33 | 
| 23 | Morecambe | 36 | 8 | 5 | 23 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 29 | 
| 24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 35 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25 | 51 | -26 | 27 | 
| > League Two Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
