Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 38.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.1%) and 3-1 (4.79%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Notts County | 
| 39.2% (  0.87) | 22.09% (  -0.21) | 38.7% (  -0.66) | 
| Both teams to score 69.03% (  0.86) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 68.9% (  1.11) | 31.09% (  -1.12) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 47.5% (  1.31) | 52.49% (  -1.31) | 
| Newport County Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 83.18% (  0.84) | 16.81% (  -0.85) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.21% (  1.49) | 46.78% (  -1.49) | 
| Notts County Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 82.98% (  0.2) | 17.01% (  -0.2) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.84% (  0.35) | 47.15% (  -0.35) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Newport County | Draw | Notts County | 
| 2-1 @ 8.05% (  0.01) 1-0 @ 5.1% (  -0.17) 3-1 @ 4.79% (  0.14) 2-0 @ 4.55% (  -0.02) 3-2 @ 4.24% (  0.15) 3-0 @ 2.7% (  0.06) 4-1 @ 2.14% (  0.12) 4-2 @ 1.89% (  0.12) 4-0 @ 1.21% (  0.06) 4-3 @ 1.12% (  0.08) Other @ 3.42% Total : 39.2% | 1-1 @ 9.03% (  -0.24) 2-2 @ 7.13% (  0.06) 0-0 @ 2.86% (  -0.18) 3-3 @ 2.5% (  0.11) Other @ 0.56% Total : 22.09% | 1-2 @ 8% (  -0.16) 0-1 @ 5.07% (  -0.28) 1-3 @ 4.72% (  -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.49% (  -0.22) 2-3 @ 4.21% (  0.06) 0-3 @ 2.65% (  -0.11) 1-4 @ 2.09% (  -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.87% (  0.04) 0-4 @ 1.17% (  -0.04) 3-4 @ 1.11% (  0.05) Other @ 3.34% Total : 38.7% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 | 
| P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 | 
| P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 | 
| 4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 | 
| 5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 | 
| 6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 | 
| 7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 | 
| 8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 | 
| 9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 | 
| 10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 | 
| 11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 | 
| 12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 | 
| 13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 | 
| 14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 | 
| 15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 | 
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 | 
| 17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 | 
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 | 
| 19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 | 
| 20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 | 
| 21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 | 
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 | 
| R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 | 
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 | 
| > League Two Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
