

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 52.45%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 26.33% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.52%) and 3-1 (6.39%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Macarthur |
| 52.45% ( | 21.22% ( | 26.33% ( |
| Both teams to score 66.28% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.72% ( | 32.29% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.1% ( | 53.9% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.35% ( | 12.65% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.19% ( | 38.81% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.88% ( | 24.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.57% ( | 58.43% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-1 @ 9.28% ( 2-0 @ 6.52% ( 3-1 @ 6.39% ( 1-0 @ 6.31% ( 3-2 @ 4.54% ( 3-0 @ 4.49% ( 4-1 @ 3.3% ( 4-2 @ 2.35% ( 4-0 @ 2.32% ( 5-1 @ 1.37% ( 4-3 @ 1.11% ( 5-2 @ 0.97% ( 5-0 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 2.53% Total : 52.45% | 1-1 @ 8.97% ( 2-2 @ 6.59% ( 0-0 @ 3.05% ( 3-3 @ 2.15% ( Other @ 0.45% Total : 21.22% | 1-2 @ 6.38% ( 0-1 @ 4.34% ( 2-3 @ 3.13% ( 0-2 @ 3.09% ( 1-3 @ 3.02% ( 0-3 @ 1.46% ( 2-4 @ 1.11% ( 1-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.72% Total : 26.33% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Auckland FC | 24 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 46 | 23 | 23 | 50 |
| 2 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 36 | 24 | 12 | 44 |
| 3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 42 |
| 4 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 50 | 35 | 15 | 41 |
| 5 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 54 | 39 | 15 | 40 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 37 |
| 7 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 37 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 33 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 29 |
| 10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 25 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 26 |
| 11 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 24 |
| 12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 15 |
| 13 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 55 | -35 | 14 |
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