

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 50.29%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 26.98% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 2-1 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 26.98% ( | 22.73% ( | 50.29% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.29% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.92% ( | 39.08% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.59% ( | 61.41% ( |
| Perth Glory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.75% ( | 27.25% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.32% ( | 62.68% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.24% ( | 15.76% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.13% ( | 44.87% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 6.71% ( 1-0 @ 5.58% ( 2-0 @ 3.63% ( 3-1 @ 2.91% ( 3-2 @ 2.69% ( 3-0 @ 1.57% ( 4-1 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.95% Total : 26.98% | 1-1 @ 10.31% ( 2-2 @ 6.2% ( 0-0 @ 4.29% ( 3-3 @ 1.65% ( Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.73% | 1-2 @ 9.53% ( 0-1 @ 7.93% ( 0-2 @ 7.33% 1-3 @ 5.87% ( 0-3 @ 4.52% ( 2-3 @ 3.82% ( 1-4 @ 2.71% ( 0-4 @ 2.09% ( 2-4 @ 1.76% ( 1-5 @ 1% ( Other @ 3.73% Total : 50.29% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 17 |
| 9 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 7 |
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