

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 52.31%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 25.84% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.24%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 52.31% ( | 21.85% ( | 25.84% ( |
| Both teams to score 63.38% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.15% ( | 35.85% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.07% ( | 57.93% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.07% ( | 13.93% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.62% ( | 41.38% ( |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.64% ( | 26.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.49% ( | 61.51% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 1-0 @ 7.24% ( 2-0 @ 7.13% ( 3-1 @ 6.25% ( 3-0 @ 4.69% ( 3-2 @ 4.17% ( 4-1 @ 3.08% ( 4-0 @ 2.31% ( 4-2 @ 2.05% ( 5-1 @ 1.21% ( 4-3 @ 0.91% ( 5-0 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.84% Total : 52.31% | 1-1 @ 9.65% ( 2-2 @ 6.34% ( 0-0 @ 3.67% ( 3-3 @ 1.85% ( Other @ 0.34% Total : 21.85% | 1-2 @ 6.43% ( 0-1 @ 4.9% ( 0-2 @ 3.26% ( 1-3 @ 2.86% ( 2-3 @ 2.82% ( 0-3 @ 1.45% ( 1-4 @ 0.95% ( 2-4 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.23% Total : 25.84% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 15 |
| 9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 7 |
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