Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 48.68%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.01%) and 1-3 (5.96%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.