

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 50.03%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 28.91% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.17%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
| 50.03% ( | 21.05% ( | 28.91% ( |
| Both teams to score 69.28% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.68% ( | 29.32% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.63% ( | 50.37% ( |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.66% ( | 12.34% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.84% ( | 38.16% ( |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.03% ( | 20.97% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.27% ( | 53.73% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2-1 @ 8.85% ( 3-1 @ 6.17% ( 2-0 @ 5.66% ( 1-0 @ 5.41% ( 3-2 @ 4.82% 3-0 @ 3.95% ( 4-1 @ 3.23% ( 4-2 @ 2.52% ( 4-0 @ 2.07% ( 5-1 @ 1.35% ( 4-3 @ 1.31% ( 5-2 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 3.63% Total : 50.03% | 1-1 @ 8.46% ( 2-2 @ 6.91% ( 0-0 @ 2.59% ( 3-3 @ 2.51% ( Other @ 0.59% Total : 21.05% | 1-2 @ 6.61% ( 0-1 @ 4.04% ( 2-3 @ 3.6% ( 1-3 @ 3.44% ( 0-2 @ 3.16% ( 0-3 @ 1.64% ( 2-4 @ 1.41% ( 1-4 @ 1.34% ( 3-4 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.7% Total : 28.91% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 15 |
| 9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 7 |
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