

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Perth Glory had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.19%) and 0-2 (5.4%). The likeliest Perth Glory win was 2-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Perth Glory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 35.47% ( | 22.81% ( | 41.71% ( |
| Both teams to score 65.75% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.81% ( | 35.19% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.8% ( | 57.2% ( |
| Perth Glory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.69% ( | 20.3% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.32% ( | 52.67% ( |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.5% ( | 17.49% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.01% ( | 47.99% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Perth Glory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 7.87% ( 1-0 @ 5.66% ( 2-0 @ 4.51% ( 3-1 @ 4.18% ( 3-2 @ 3.65% ( 3-0 @ 2.4% ( 4-1 @ 1.67% ( 4-2 @ 1.45% ( 4-0 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 3.12% Total : 35.47% | 1-1 @ 9.87% ( 2-2 @ 6.86% ( 0-0 @ 3.55% ( 3-3 @ 2.12% ( Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.81% | 1-2 @ 8.61% ( 0-1 @ 6.19% ( 0-2 @ 5.4% ( 1-3 @ 5% ( 2-3 @ 3.99% ( 0-3 @ 3.14% ( 1-4 @ 2.18% ( 2-4 @ 1.74% ( 0-4 @ 1.37% ( 3-4 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 3.19% Total : 41.71% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 17 |
| 9 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 7 |
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