

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 52.34%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 26.54% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.4%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 52.34% ( | 21.11% ( | 26.54% ( |
| Both teams to score 66.92% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.47% ( | 31.53% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.98% ( | 53.01% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.57% ( | 12.43% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.66% ( | 38.34% ( |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.42% ( | 23.58% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.35% ( | 57.64% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.2% ( 3-1 @ 6.4% ( 2-0 @ 6.37% ( 1-0 @ 6.11% ( 3-2 @ 4.62% ( 3-0 @ 4.43% ( 4-1 @ 3.34% ( 4-2 @ 2.41% ( 4-0 @ 2.31% ( 5-1 @ 1.39% ( 4-3 @ 1.16% ( 5-2 @ 1.01% ( 5-0 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 2.64% Total : 52.34% | 1-1 @ 8.83% ( 2-2 @ 6.65% ( 0-0 @ 2.93% ( 3-3 @ 2.23% ( Other @ 0.47% Total : 21.11% | 1-2 @ 6.38% ( 0-1 @ 4.23% ( 2-3 @ 3.2% ( 1-3 @ 3.07% ( 0-2 @ 3.06% ( 0-3 @ 1.47% ( 2-4 @ 1.16% ( 1-4 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 2.86% Total : 26.54% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Auckland FC | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 44 | 23 | 21 | 47 |
| 2 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 43 |
| 3 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 50 | 35 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 52 | 37 | 15 | 39 |
| 5 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 39 |
| 6 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 36 |
| 7 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 49 | 38 | 11 | 34 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 46 | 38 | 8 | 32 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 29 |
| 10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 47 | -21 | 25 |
| 11 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 24 |
| 12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 14 |
| 13 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 55 | -35 | 14 |
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