

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 48.89%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.02%) and 2-0 (5.74%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 48.89% ( | 21.42% ( | 29.69% ( |
| Both teams to score 68.44% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.36% ( | 30.63% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.04% ( | 51.95% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.84% ( | 13.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.16% ( | 39.84% ( |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.8% ( | 21.19% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.93% ( | 54.07% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 8.9% ( 3-1 @ 6.02% ( 2-0 @ 5.74% ( 1-0 @ 5.66% ( 3-2 @ 4.67% ( 3-0 @ 3.88% ( 4-1 @ 3.05% ( 4-2 @ 2.37% ( 4-0 @ 1.97% ( 5-1 @ 1.24% ( 4-3 @ 1.22% ( 5-2 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 3.24% Total : 48.89% | 1-1 @ 8.77% ( 2-2 @ 6.9% ( 0-0 @ 2.79% ( 3-3 @ 2.41% ( Other @ 0.54% Total : 21.42% | 1-2 @ 6.81% ( 0-1 @ 4.33% ( 2-3 @ 3.57% ( 1-3 @ 3.52% ( 0-2 @ 3.36% ( 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 2-4 @ 1.39% ( 1-4 @ 1.37% ( 3-4 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.69% Total : 29.69% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 17 |
| 9 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 7 |
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