

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.15% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.44%) and 1-0 (5.22%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Macarthur would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Adelaide United | 
| 44.1% (  0.63) | 21.75% (  0.08) | 34.15% (  -0.72) | 
| Both teams to score 69.54% (  -0.57) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 69.88% (  -0.65) | 30.12% (  0.64) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 48.66% (  -0.78) | 51.33% (  0.77) | 
| Macarthur Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 85.45% (  -0.03) | 14.55% (  0.03) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.4% (  -0.06) | 42.59% (  0.06) | 
| Adelaide United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.38% (  -0.64) | 18.61% (  0.63) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.09% (  -1.08) | 49.91% (  1.07) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Macarthur | Draw | Adelaide United | 
| 2-1 @ 8.46% (  0.12) 3-1 @ 5.44% (  0.07) 1-0 @ 5.22% (  0.18) 2-0 @ 5.03% (  0.17) 3-2 @ 4.57% (  -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.23% (  0.11) 4-1 @ 2.62% (  0.03) 4-2 @ 2.2% (  -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.56% (  0.05) 4-3 @ 1.23% (  -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.01% (  0.01) Other @ 3.53% Total : 44.1% | 1-1 @ 8.78% (  0.13) 2-2 @ 7.11% (  -0.04) 0-0 @ 2.71% (  0.1) 3-3 @ 2.56% (  -0.07) Other @ 0.59% Total : 21.75% | 1-2 @ 7.38% (  -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.55% (  0.07) 1-3 @ 4.14% (  -0.11) 2-3 @ 3.99% (  -0.11) 0-2 @ 3.83% (  -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.15% (  -0.05) 1-4 @ 1.74% (  -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.68% (  -0.08) 3-4 @ 1.08% (  -0.05) 0-4 @ 0.9% (  -0.04) Other @ 2.73% Total : 34.15% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 23 | 
| 2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 21 | 
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 
| 4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 | 
| 5 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 17 | 
| 6 | Macarthur | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 17 | 
| 7 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 
| 8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 | 
| 9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 | 
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 13 | 
| 11 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 8 | 
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 25 | -17 | 6 | 
| > Australian A-League Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
