

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 34.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Metz | Draw | Toulouse |
| 38.49% ( | 26.76% ( | 34.75% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.57% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.51% ( | 53.49% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.99% ( | 75.01% ( |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.93% ( | 27.07% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.56% ( | 62.44% ( |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.71% ( | 29.29% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.75% ( | 65.25% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Metz | Draw | Toulouse |
| 1-0 @ 10.35% ( 2-1 @ 8.31% ( 2-0 @ 6.77% ( 3-1 @ 3.62% ( 3-0 @ 2.95% ( 3-2 @ 2.22% ( 4-1 @ 1.18% ( 4-0 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 2.1% Total : 38.48% | 1-1 @ 12.72% ( 0-0 @ 7.93% ( 2-2 @ 5.11% ( 3-3 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.76% | 0-1 @ 9.73% ( 1-2 @ 7.81% ( 0-2 @ 5.98% ( 1-3 @ 3.2% ( 0-3 @ 2.45% ( 2-3 @ 2.09% ( 1-4 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.51% Total : 34.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 32 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 77 | 32 | 45 | 70 |
| 2 | MonacoMonaco | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 42 | 22 | 64 |
| 3 | Lille | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 58 |
| 4 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
| 5 | Nice | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 54 |
| 6 | Lens | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Lyon | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 50 |
| 8 | Marseille | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 39 | 11 | 47 |
| 9 | Rennes | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 46 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 43 |
| 11 | Reims | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 41 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 40 |
| 13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 39 |
| 14 | NantesNantes | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 33 |
| 15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
| 16 | Metz | 33 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 29 |
| 17 | Lorient | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 66 | -28 | 26 |
| R | Clermont | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 25 |
| > Ligue 1 Full Table | |||||||||
