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Cheltenham Town
League Two | Gameweek 45
Apr 26, 2025 at 3pm UK
Jonny-Rocks Stadium
Carlisle United

Cheltenham
3 - 2
Carlisle

Thomas (33' pen.), Hay (45'), Miller (90+3')
Jude-Boyd (81')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Dennis (29'), Kelly (73')
Dennis (6'), Breeze (32'), Hayden (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Cheltenham Town and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Notts County 1-2 Cheltenham
Monday, April 21 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Accrington 1-1 Carlisle
Monday, April 21 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Cheltenham Town 1-2 Carlisle United

Cheltenham may have bounced back from a difficult spell with some commendable results, but Carlisle are in better form despite the disparity in league position. Additionally, the hosts have been particularly poor at home, while the visitors will be under immense pressure with the threat of relegation looming and will be motivated for every duel. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.83%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.

Result
Cheltenham TownDrawCarlisle United
35.76% (0.266 0.27) 26.41% (0.046000000000003 0.05) 37.83% (-0.311 -0.31)
Both teams to score 52.8% (-0.125 -0.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.03% (-0.169 -0.17)51.97% (0.171 0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.29% (-0.146 -0.15)73.71% (0.14700000000001 0.15)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.07% (0.081000000000003 0.08)27.93% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.44% (0.099000000000004 0.1)63.56% (-0.098999999999997 -0.1)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.27% (-0.255 -0.25)26.73% (0.255 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38% (-0.33600000000001 -0.34)62% (0.338 0.34)
Score Analysis
    Cheltenham Town 35.76%
    Carlisle United 37.83%
    Draw 26.41%
Cheltenham TownDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 9.52% (0.086 0.09)
2-1 @ 8.01% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 6.07% (0.068000000000001 0.07)
3-1 @ 3.41% (0.021 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.58% (0.034 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.25% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.09% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 35.76%
1-1 @ 12.56% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 7.47% (0.05 0.05)
2-2 @ 5.29% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-3 @ 0.99% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.41%
0-1 @ 9.85% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
1-2 @ 8.29% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-2 @ 6.5% (-0.051 -0.05)
1-3 @ 3.65% (-0.046 -0.05)
0-3 @ 2.86% (-0.043 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.33% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.2% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-4 @ 0.94% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 37.83%

How you voted: Cheltenham vs Carlisle

Cheltenham Town
50.0%
Draw
10.0%
Carlisle United
40.0%
10
Head to Head
Oct 26, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 14
Carlisle
0-1
Cheltenham

Robson (46'), Neal (69'), Mellish (82'), Sadi (83')
Archer (17')
Stubbs (29'), Young (55'), Payne (90')
Apr 9, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 29
Cheltenham
0-1
Carlisle
Lavelle (42')
Huntington (7'), Robinson (78'), Lavelle (85')
Dec 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 23
Carlisle
0-1
Cheltenham

Lavelle (38'), Moxon (67')
Sercombe (27')
Bonds (40'), Freestone (82'), Long (90+5')
Apr 27, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 28
Cheltenham
1-1
Carlisle
Hussey (56')
Kayode (33')
Hayden (73'), Mellish (87'), Anderton (90+4')
Nov 14, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 12
Carlisle
1-2
Cheltenham
Mellish (45+3')
Boyle (15'), Thomas (36' pen.)
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Doncaster RoversDoncaster4523121071492281
2Port Vale452214965452080
3Bradford CityBradford4521121263451875
4Walsall4520141174542074
5Notts County4520121367472072
6AFC Wimbledon4519131355352070
7Salford City4518141362521068
8Grimsby Town45208176166-568
9Chesterfield4518131472541867
10Colchester UnitedColchester451618115247566
11Bromley451615146159263
12Crewe AlexandraCrewe451517134947262
13Swindon TownSwindon451516147163861
14Fleetwood TownFleetwood451515156059160
15Cheltenham TownCheltenham451612176067-760
16BarrowBarrow451513175250258
17Gillingham451316164046-655
18MK Dons45149225266-1451
19Accrington StanleyAccrington451214195368-1550
20Harrogate TownHarrogate451311214160-1950
21Newport CountyNewport451310225172-2149
22Tranmere RoversTranmere451115194164-2348
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle451011244269-2741
24Morecambe45106293970-3136


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