

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 34.65% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.06%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Port Vale |
| 34.65% ( | 27.59% ( | 37.76% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.96% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.22% ( | 56.78% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.28% ( | 77.72% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.01% ( | 30.99% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.71% ( | 67.29% ( |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.94% ( | 29.06% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.03% ( | 64.97% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Port Vale |
| 1-0 @ 10.54% ( 2-1 @ 7.64% ( 2-0 @ 6.18% ( 3-1 @ 2.98% ( 3-0 @ 2.41% ( 3-2 @ 1.84% ( Other @ 3.04% Total : 34.64% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( 0-0 @ 9% ( 2-2 @ 4.72% ( Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.59% | 0-1 @ 11.12% ( 1-2 @ 8.06% ( 0-2 @ 6.88% ( 1-3 @ 3.32% ( 0-3 @ 2.83% ( 2-3 @ 1.94% ( 1-4 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.58% Total : 37.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 |
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 |
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 |
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 |
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 |
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 |
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 |
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 |
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 |
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 |
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 |
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 |
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 |
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 |
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 |
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 |
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 |
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 |
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