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Major League Soccer
May 18, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Philadelphia Union

Atlanta
vs.
Philadelphia

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's MLS Playoffs clash between Atlanta United and Philadelphia Union, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We say: Atlanta United 1-3 Philadelphia Union

Atlanta's home form offers a glimmer of hope, but their overall struggles and mounting injuries leave them vulnerable against a confident and in-form Philadelphia side, and with Baribo firing and the Union pushing for top spot, the visitors should have enough quality to edge this contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Atlanta United win with a probability of 47.92%. A win for Philadelphia Union has a probability of 29.53% and a draw has a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (6.99%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win is 1-2 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.93%).

Result
Atlanta UnitedDrawPhiladelphia Union
47.92% (-1.328 -1.33) 22.54% (0.183 0.18) 29.53% (1.144 1.14)
Both teams to score 64.06% (0.185 0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.69% (-0.114 -0.11)36.31% (0.113 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.56% (-0.125 -0.13)58.44% (0.125 0.13)
Atlanta United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.43% (-0.506 -0.51)15.57% (0.504 0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.48% (-0.947 -0.95)44.52% (0.945 0.95)
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.87% (0.66900000000001 0.67)24.13% (-0.67 -0.67)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.56% (0.942 0.94)58.44% (-0.941 -0.94)
Score Analysis
    Atlanta United 47.92%
    Philadelphia Union 29.53%
    Draw 22.54%
Atlanta UnitedDrawPhiladelphia Union
2-1 @ 9.24% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
1-0 @ 6.99% (-0.084 -0.08)
2-0 @ 6.5% (-0.195 -0.19)
3-1 @ 5.73% (-0.161 -0.16)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.03% (-0.194 -0.19)
4-1 @ 2.66% (-0.123 -0.12)
4-2 @ 1.89% (-0.05 -0.05)
4-0 @ 1.87% (-0.125 -0.13)
5-1 @ 0.99% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 3.95%
Total : 47.92%
1-1 @ 9.93% (0.074 0.07)
2-2 @ 6.57% (0.061 0.06)
0-0 @ 3.76% (0.021 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.93% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 0.36%
Total : 22.54%
1-2 @ 7.06% (0.188 0.19)
0-1 @ 5.34% (0.132 0.13)
0-2 @ 3.8% (0.165 0.17)
1-3 @ 3.35% (0.151 0.15)
2-3 @ 3.11% (0.088 0.09)
0-3 @ 1.8% (0.111 0.11)
1-4 @ 1.19% (0.075 0.08)
2-4 @ 1.11% (0.052 0.05)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 29.53%

Who will win Saturday's MLS Playoffs clash between Atlanta and Philadelphia?

Atlanta United
Draw
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United
8.3%
Draw
8.3%
Philadelphia Union
83.3%
12
Head to Head
Apr 20, 2025 12.30am
Philadelphia
3-0
Atlanta
Sullivan (27'), Jean Jacques (50'), Baribo (84')
Glesnes (19'), Lukic (45+3'), Jean Jacques (57')
Lukic (56')

Amador (68'), Latte Lath (70')
Sep 29, 2024 12.30am
Apr 14, 2024 7.30pm
Atlanta
2-2
Philadelphia
Rios (55'), Wiley (63')
Almada (25'), Muyumba (84')
Uhre (73'), Wagner (77')
Carranza (21'), Gazdag (35'), Andres Martinez (35'), Wagner (75'), McGlynn (90+5')
Oct 5, 2023 12.30am
Philadelphia
3-2
Atlanta
Gazdag (39'), Uhre (41'), Carranza (45+3')
Elliott (34'), Sullivan (66'), Andres Martinez (75'), Harriel (81')
Almada (56' pen.), Mosquera (77')
Thiare (75')
Jul 2, 2023 9pm
Atlanta
2-0
Philadelphia
Almada (7'), Lennon (79')
Sejdic (70'), Ibarra (75')

Harriel (4'), Carranza (47'), Uhre (65'), Torres (90+3')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS

Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Columbus Crew127412012825
2FC CincinnatiCincinnati128131714325
3Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia1272323121123
4Inter MiamiInter Miami116322115621
5Nashville SCNashville126242215720
6New York City FCNY City136251514120
7Charlotte FCCharlotte FC126151914519
8Orlando City124622115618
9New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls135351915418
10New England RevolutionNew England115241210217
11Chicago Fire124442023-316
12Toronto133461617-113
13DC United123361325-1212
14Atlanta UnitedAtlanta122461322-910
15CF MontrealMontreal13139722-156

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver1283124101427
2Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd126421911822
3Portland TimbersPortland126332219321
4Seattle SoundersSeattle125432014619
5Los Angeles FCLos Angeles125341918118
6San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes125162620616
7Colorado RapidsColorado124441518-316
8Dallas124441520-516
9Austin FCAustin12516815-716
10Real Salt LakeSalt Lake124171318-513
11St Louis City12246914-510
12Houston DynamoHouston122461119-810
13Sporting Kansas CityKansas112181622-67
14Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy11038827-193
15San Diego FC00000000


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