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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 42.23%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Grimsby Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Grimsby Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
42.23% (![]() | 26.65% (![]() | 31.12% (![]() |
Both teams to score 50.92% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.13% (![]() | 53.87% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.67% (![]() | 75.33% (![]() |
Grimsby Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.77% (![]() | 25.23% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.03% (![]() | 59.97% (![]() |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.1% (![]() | 31.9% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.66% (![]() | 68.34% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Grimsby Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
1-0 @ 11.08% (![]() 2-1 @ 8.72% 2-0 @ 7.63% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 4% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 3.5% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.29% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.38% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.21% ( ![]() Other @ 2.42% Total : 42.23% | 1-1 @ 12.66% 0-0 @ 8.05% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4.98% ( ![]() Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.65% | 0-1 @ 9.2% (![]() 1-2 @ 7.24% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 5.25% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 2.76% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 2% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.9% ( ![]() Other @ 2.78% Total : 31.12% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 |
P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 |
P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 |
4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 |
6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 |
7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 |
8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 |
10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 |
11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 |
12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 |
13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 |
14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 |
15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 |
16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 |
17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 |
19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 |
22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 |
R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 |
> League Two Full Table |