

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 40.64%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 33.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Crewe Alexandra | 
| 33.69% (  -1.61) | 25.67% (  0.51) | 40.64% (  1.1) | 
| Both teams to score 54.94% (  -2.08) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 50.91% (  -2.54) | 49.09% (  2.54) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 28.84% (  -2.34) | 71.16% (  2.34) | 
| Carlisle United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 72.19% (  -2.18) | 27.8% (  2.18) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.61% (  -2.87) | 63.39% (  2.87) | 
| Crewe Alexandra Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 76.1% (  -0.57) | 23.9% (  0.57) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.89% (  -0.83) | 58.11% (  0.82) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Carlisle United | Draw | Crewe Alexandra | 
| 1-0 @ 8.51% (  0.37) 2-1 @ 7.79% (  -0.27) 2-0 @ 5.44% (  -0.1) 3-1 @ 3.33% (  -0.34) 3-2 @ 2.38% (  -0.29) 3-0 @ 2.32% (  -0.19) 4-1 @ 1.06% (  -0.18) Other @ 2.86% Total : 33.69% | 1-1 @ 12.17% (  0.33) 0-0 @ 6.65% (  0.67) 2-2 @ 5.58% (  -0.29) 3-3 @ 1.14% (  -0.16) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.67% | 0-1 @ 9.51% (  0.81) 1-2 @ 8.71% (  0.09) 0-2 @ 6.81% (  0.47) 1-3 @ 4.16% (  -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.25% (  0.18) 2-3 @ 2.66% (  -0.19) 1-4 @ 1.49% (  -0.03) 0-4 @ 1.16% (  0.04) 2-4 @ 0.95% (  -0.08) Other @ 1.94% Total : 40.64% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 | 
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 | 
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 | 
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 | 
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 | 
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 | 
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 | 
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 | 
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 | 
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 | 
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 | 
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 | 
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 | 
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 | 
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 | 
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 | 
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 | 
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 | 
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 | 
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 | 
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 | 
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 | 
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 | 
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 | 
| > League Two Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
