

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 51.18%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 24.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Villarreal |
| 51.18% ( | 24.34% ( | 24.49% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.39% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.6% ( | 48.4% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.46% ( | 70.54% ( |
| Real Sociedad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.09% ( | 18.91% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.59% ( | 50.41% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.84% ( | 34.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.14% ( | 70.86% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Villarreal |
| 1-0 @ 10.76% ( 2-1 @ 9.62% ( 2-0 @ 8.96% ( 3-1 @ 5.34% ( 3-0 @ 4.97% ( 3-2 @ 2.87% ( 4-1 @ 2.22% ( 4-0 @ 2.07% ( 4-2 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 3.16% Total : 51.18% | 1-1 @ 11.55% ( 0-0 @ 6.46% ( 2-2 @ 5.17% ( 3-3 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.33% | 0-1 @ 6.94% ( 1-2 @ 6.21% ( 0-2 @ 3.73% ( 1-3 @ 2.22% ( 2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0-3 @ 1.33% ( Other @ 2.21% Total : 24.49% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barcelona | 32 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 88 | 32 | 56 | 73 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 31 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 64 | 31 | 33 | 66 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 32 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 53 | 27 | 26 | 63 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 31 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 57 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 55 | 42 | 13 | 52 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 42 | 39 | 3 | 48 |
| 7 | Mallorca | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 44 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 43 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 42 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 41 |
| 12 | Getafe | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 39 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 | Valencia | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 38 |
| 15 | Sevilla | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 36 |
| 16 | GironaGirona | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 34 |
| 17 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 32 |
| 18 | AlavesAlaves | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 30 |
| 19 | Leganes | 32 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 29 |
| 20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 32 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 23 | 76 | -53 | 16 |
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