

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 41%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Swindon Town in this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Chesterfield | 
| 41% (  -0.04) | 25.07% (  -0.02) | 33.93% (  0.06) | 
| Both teams to score 57.05% (  0.09) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 53.62% (  0.1) | 46.39% (  -0.1) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 31.33% (  0.1) | 68.67% (  -0.1) | 
| Swindon Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 77.47% (  0.02) | 22.53% (  -0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.89% (  0.04) | 56.11% (  -0.04) | 
| Chesterfield Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.64% (  0.09) | 26.36% (  -0.09) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.5% (  0.12) | 61.51% (  -0.11) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Swindon Town | Draw | Chesterfield | 
| 1-0 @ 8.85% (  -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.79% (  -0) 2-0 @ 6.6% (  -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.37% (  0) 3-0 @ 3.28% (  -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.91% (  0.01) 4-1 @ 1.63% (  0) 4-0 @ 1.22% (  -0) 4-2 @ 1.09% (  0) Other @ 2.28% Total : 41% | 1-1 @ 11.8% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.94% (  -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.86% (  0.01) 3-3 @ 1.29% (  0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.07% | 0-1 @ 7.92% (  -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.87% (  0.01) 0-2 @ 5.28% (  0) 1-3 @ 3.5% (  0.01) 2-3 @ 2.61% (  0.01) 0-3 @ 2.35% (  0.01) 1-4 @ 1.17% (  0.01) Other @ 3.24% Total : 33.93% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 | 
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 | 
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 | 
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 | 
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 | 
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 | 
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 | 
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 | 
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 | 
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 | 
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 | 
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 | 
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 | 
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 | 
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 | 
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 | 
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 | 
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 | 
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 | 
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 | 
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 | 
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 | 
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 | 
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 | 
| > League Two Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
