Newport will be desperate to stop the rot this week and put points on the board for the first time in 2025, and they could deliver a spirited performance.
However, Swindon are in much better form, and even though the Robins might concede due to their own defensive weakness, the Exiles may be unable to avoid yet another defeat.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.16%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Swindon Town in this match.
0.68) 
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