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AFC Wimbledon
Accrington Stanley
Barrow
Bradford City
Bromley
Carlisle United
Cheltenham Town
Chesterfield
Colchester United
Crewe Alexandra
Doncaster Rovers
Fleetwood Town
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
Harrogate Town
MK Dons
Morecambe
Newport County
Notts County
Port Vale
Salford City
Swindon Town
Tranmere Rovers
Walsall
Newport County
League Two | Gameweek 24
Jan 2, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Rodney Parade
AFC Wimbledon

Newport
1 - 2
AFC Wimbledon

Greaves (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kelly (49'), Sawyers (77')
Harbottle (41'), Tilley (53'), Kelly (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's League Two clash between Newport County and AFC Wimbledon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Walsall 2-0 Newport
Sunday, December 29 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Newport County 1-1 AFC Wimbledon

Wimbledon will be targeting all three points to aid in their promotion push, but we think that they may have to settle for a share of the spoils, especially as four of their previous five meetings between the two sides have finished all square. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 52.37%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 23.77%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.71%) and 0-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a Newport County win it was 1-0 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
Newport CountyDrawAFC Wimbledon
23.77% (-0.349 -0.35) 23.86% (0.056999999999999 0.06) 52.37% (0.29499999999999 0.29)
Both teams to score 54.13% (-0.581 -0.58)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.96% (-0.581 -0.58)47.04% (0.585 0.59)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.72% (-0.544 -0.54)69.29% (0.54599999999999 0.55)
Newport County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.96% (-0.62299999999999 -0.62)34.04% (0.625 0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.28% (-0.676 -0.68)70.72% (0.678 0.68)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.06% (-0.105 -0.11)17.94% (0.106 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.24% (-0.183 -0.18)48.76% (0.185 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Newport County 23.77%
    AFC Wimbledon 52.37%
    Draw 23.85%
Newport CountyDrawAFC Wimbledon
1-0 @ 6.58% (0.049 0.05)
2-1 @ 6.09% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-0 @ 3.55% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-1 @ 2.19% (-0.067 -0.07)
3-2 @ 1.88% (-0.064 -0.06)
3-0 @ 1.27% (-0.035 -0.04)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 23.77%
1-1 @ 11.3% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 6.11% (0.148 0.15)
2-2 @ 5.23% (-0.087 -0.09)
3-3 @ 1.08% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 23.85%
0-1 @ 10.49% (0.22 0.22)
1-2 @ 9.71% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
0-2 @ 9.01% (0.157 0.16)
1-3 @ 5.56% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-3 @ 5.16% (0.072 0.07)
2-3 @ 3% (-0.06 -0.06)
1-4 @ 2.39% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-4 @ 2.22% (0.023 0.02)
2-4 @ 1.29% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 3.53%
Total : 52.37%

How you voted: Newport vs AFC Wimbledon

Newport County
55.6%
Draw
7.4%
AFC Wimbledon
37.0%
27
Head to Head
Dec 3, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 18
AFC Wimbledon
2-2
Newport
Smith (12'), Stevens (20')
Bugiel (45+1'), O'Toole (51'), Neufville (75')
Jackson (46')
Spellman (26'), McLoughlin (90+7' pen.)
Mar 16, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 39
AFC Wimbledon
0-2
Newport

O'Toole (20')
Morris (9'), Jameson (55')
Lewis (36'), Jameson (36'), Bennett (45'), Payne (70')
Sep 2, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 6
Newport
2-2
AFC Wimbledon
Evans (45+2'), Bogle (55')
Delaney (33')
Tilley (9', 30')
Pell (90+6')
Mar 14, 2023 7.45pm
Dec 26, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 23
AFC Wimbledon
1-1
Newport
Chislett (58')
Zanzala (70' pen.)
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CDoncaster RoversDoncaster4624121073502384
4Walsall4621141175542177
5AFC Wimbledon4620131356352173
6Notts County4620121468491972
7Chesterfield4619131473541970
8Salford City4618151364541069
9Grimsby Town46208186167-668
10Colchester UnitedColchester461619115247567
11Bromley461715146459566
12Swindon TownSwindon461517147163862
13Crewe AlexandraCrewe461517144948162
14Fleetwood TownFleetwood461515166060060
15Cheltenham TownCheltenham461612186070-1060
16BarrowBarrow461514175250259
17Gillingham461416164146-558
18Harrogate TownHarrogate461411214361-1853
19MK Dons461410225266-1452
20Tranmere RoversTranmere461215194565-2051
21Accrington StanleyAccrington461214205369-1650
22Newport CountyNewport461310235276-2449
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle461012244471-2742
RMorecambe46106304072-3236


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