Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Newport County | 
| 39.04% (  0.2) | 27.5% (  -0.07) | 33.47% (  -0.13) | 
| Both teams to score 49.05% (  0.2) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 43.43% (  0.27) | 56.58% (  -0.26) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 22.45% (  0.21) | 77.56% (  -0.21) | 
| AFC Wimbledon Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 71.78% (  0.24) | 28.22% (  -0.24) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.08% (  0.31) | 63.92% (  -0.3) | 
| Newport County Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 68.34% (  0.05) | 31.67% (  -0.05) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.92% (  0.06) | 68.08% (  -0.06) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Newport County | 
| 1-0 @ 11.3% (  -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.22% (  0.04) 2-0 @ 7.15% (  0.02) 3-1 @ 3.47% (  0.04) 3-0 @ 3.02% (  0.03) 3-2 @ 1.99% (  0.03) 4-1 @ 1.1% (  0.02) 4-0 @ 0.95% (  0.02) Other @ 1.83% Total : 39.03% | 1-1 @ 13% (  -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.94% (  -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.73% (  0.03) Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.5% | 0-1 @ 10.27% (  -0.09) 1-2 @ 7.47% (  -0) 0-2 @ 5.91% (  -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.87% (  0) 0-3 @ 2.27% (  -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.81% (  0.01) Other @ 2.87% Total : 33.46% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 35 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 72 | 
| 2 | Stevenage | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 50 | 31 | 19 | 66 | 
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 35 | 23 | 64 | 
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 63 | 
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 36 | 17 | 8 | 11 | 49 | 31 | 18 | 59 | 
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 35 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 59 | 
| 7 | Salford City | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 41 | 13 | 56 | 
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 54 | 44 | 10 | 55 | 
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 55 | 
| 10 | BarrowBarrow | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 52 | 
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 35 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 50 | 
| 12 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 35 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 50 | 
| 13 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 48 | 
| 14 | Walsall | 35 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 45 | 
| 15 | Grimsby Town | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 45 | 
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 43 | 
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 35 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 42 | 
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 36 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 40 | 
| 19 | Gillingham | 35 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 38 | 
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 35 | 
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 36 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 35 | 
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 36 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 38 | 64 | -26 | 30 | 
| 23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 29 | 
| 24 | Rochdale | 36 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 25 | 
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