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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 55.32%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.27%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (7.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Gillingham |
55.32% ( -0.17) | 25.18% ( -0.21) | 19.5% ( 0.38) |
Both teams to score 44.67% ( 1.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.28% ( 1.15) | 56.72% ( -1.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.33% ( 0.91) | 77.67% ( -0.91) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.49% ( 0.39) | 20.51% ( -0.39) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47% ( 0.61) | 53% ( -0.61) |
Gillingham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.2% ( 1.11) | 43.8% ( -1.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.04% ( 0.9) | 79.96% ( -0.9) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Gillingham |
1-0 @ 14.23% ( -0.46) 2-0 @ 11.27% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.1) 3-0 @ 5.95% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 4.92% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 1.95% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.3% Total : 55.31% | 1-1 @ 11.74% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.98% ( -0.4) 2-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.16) Other @ 0.61% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.78% Total : 19.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 35 |
2 | Notts County | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 30 |
3 | Wrexham | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 30 |
4 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 29 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 29 |
6 | Morecambe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 27 |
7 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 26 |
8 | Gillingham | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 25 |
9 | Swindon TownSwindon | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 22 |
11 | BarrowBarrow | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 22 |
12 | MK Dons | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Salford City | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 21 |
14 | Crawley TownCrawley | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Walsall | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 20 |
16 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 20 |
17 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 20 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
19 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 18 |
20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 16 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 14 |
22 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 13 |
23 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 10 |
24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 10 |
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