Manchester City can move one step closer to securing a top-five finish in the Premier League if they prevail against already-relegated Southampton at St Mary's on Saturday afternoon.
The Citizens are looking to complete their seventh PL double over the Saints after securing a narrow 1-0 win in the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium in October last year, courtesy of an early Erling Haaland goal.
Match preview
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Southampton are guaranteed to finish rock bottom of the Premier League this season after they suffered their 28th league defeat of the season against 19th-placed Leicester City, losing 2-0 away from home last weekend.
The Saints are in serious danger of setting an unwanted Premier League record, as one more defeat in their remaining three fixtures would see them equal the highest number of losses (29) in a 20-team top-flight campaign (Sunderland in 2005-06, Derby County in 2007-08 and Sheffield United in 2020-21).
Southampton, who also require just one point to avoid equalling Derby's lowest-ever points total (11) from 2007-08, have conceded a total of 82 Premier League goals this season and only three times before this term have they conceded more in a single league campaign in their history - 85 in 1952-53, 92 in 1966-67 and 83 in 1967-68.
Interim boss Simon Rusk is hoping to end the season on a positive note and is still searching for the right formula to avoid letting leads slip. Indeed, the Saints have dropped more points from winning positions than any other Premier League team this term (28) and if they take the lead against Man City but fail to win, it will be the first time they have ever lost 30+ points after going ahead in a single campaign in the division.
Success for Southampton on Saturday could prove challenging, though, as they have only come out on top in one of their last 15 top-flight meetings with Man City, (D3 L11) - a slender 1-0 home victory in July 2020 under former boss Ralph Hasenhuttl.
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In stark contrast to the end of 2024, Manchester City are in high spirits as they have put together a nine-game unbeaten run across all competitions (W7 D2) and have won each of their last four Premier League games, their joint-longest winning run of the campaign.
Soon-to-be-departing club legend Kevin De Bruyne scored the only goal as the Citizens edged past a wasteful Wolverhampton Wanderers outfit by a 1-0 scoreline at the Etihad Stadium last week, a result which helped Pep Guardiola's side climb to third in the table as they capitalised on both Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest dropping points.
The race to qualify for next season's Champions League is set to go right down to the wire, but with three games remaining, Man City sit one point clear of both Newcastle and Chelsea in fourth and fifth respectively, and crucially three points above Forest in sixth, while the prospect of finishing second in what has been a turbulent 2024-25 season has emerged, as Guardiola's side sit just three points behind Arsenal, who face champions Liverpool this weekend.
Man City make the trip to St Mary's seeking to win back-to-back away league matches for the first time since August and they will fancy their chances of success on Saturday, as they are unbeaten in their last 29 PL games against teams starting the day bottom of the table (W24 D5) since a 2-1 loss at West Bromwich Albion in December 2008 - the Citizens have won their last 12 in a row by a remarkable aggregate scoreline of 44-1.
Since the 2004-05 season, Man City have lost only three of their 25 PL encounters with Southampton (W17 D5), but all three of those defeats have taken place at St Mary's. Guardiola's men won the reverse fixture 1-0 at the Etihad and they will endeavour to keep consecutive clean sheets versus the Saints for the first time since doing so in both home and away clashes in 2014-15.
Team News
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Southampton duo Albert Gronbaek (Achilles) and Charlie Taylor (hip) both remain sidelined, but Paul Onuachu recovered from an ankle issue to feature as a substitute last weekend and will push for a start up front against Man City at the expense of Ross Stewart.
Rusk seems settled on using Kamaldeen Sulemana and Mateus Fernandes in advanced roles and both players could to start again this weekend, as in-demand Tyler Dibling potentially begins as a substitute once again.
Flynn Downes and Lesley Ugochukwu will likely to get the nod to start in centre-midfield as Kyle Walker-Peters and Ryan Manning operate as wing-backs, while Man City academy graduate Taylor Harwood-Bellis is expected to retain his starting spot in the back three alongside Jan Bednarek and Jack Stephens.
As for Man City, both Rodri and Nathan Ake are now taking part in training after spells out with respective knee and foot injuries, but Saturday's game will come too soon for the pair, while John Stones (thigh) and Oscar Bobb (hamstring) are also sidelined.
However, Erling Haaland is in contention to feature, either from the start or as a substitute, after recovering from an ankle problem that forced him to miss six games. Omar Marmoush and Jeremy Doku could provide support in attack for the Norwegian if he begins as the central striker.
Guardiola will weigh up whether to continue with De Bruyne in his first XI or rest him ahead of his final Etihad appearance next Tuesday against Bournemouth. Phil Foden, James McAtee or Nico Gonzalez could be called upon if the Belgian does not start.
Manuel Akanji will be pushing to start his first game in defence since February 11 after recovering from injury and his potential inclusion in the first XI could result in Josko Gvardiol moving to left-back and Nico O'Reilly dropping down to the substitutes' bench.
Southampton possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Stephens; Walker-Peters, Downes, Ugochukwu, Manning; Fernandes, Sulemana; Onuachu
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O'Reilly; Gonzalez, Gundogan, Bernardo; Marmoush, Haaland, Doku
We say: Southampton 0-4 Manchester City
The confidence in Man City's camp has sky-rocketed in recent weeks and Guardiola's Champions League chasers will be regarded as firm favourites to come out on top against a struggling Southampton side that have conceded in each of their last 18 league games, shipping at least two goals in 14 of those.
A combination of dogged Saints defending and poor finishing from the Citizens resulted in a low-scoring affair in the reverse fixture, but we are backing City to win in convincing fashion this time around to consolidate their place in the top five.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Oliver Thomas
