

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 61.63%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 17.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.7%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 1-2 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chesterfield | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
| 61.63% ( | 20.69% ( | 17.68% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.14% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.88% ( | 41.12% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.48% ( | 63.51% ( |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.15% ( | 12.84% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.8% ( | 39.2% ( |
| Accrington Stanley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.27% ( | 36.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.48% ( | 73.52% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Chesterfield | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
| 2-1 @ 9.95% 2-0 @ 9.93% ( 1-0 @ 9.68% ( 3-1 @ 6.81% ( 3-0 @ 6.8% ( 4-1 @ 3.49% ( 4-0 @ 3.49% ( 3-2 @ 3.41% ( 4-2 @ 1.75% ( 5-1 @ 1.43% ( 5-0 @ 1.43% ( Other @ 3.45% Total : 61.63% | 1-1 @ 9.7% ( 2-2 @ 4.98% ( 0-0 @ 4.72% ( 3-3 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 20.69% | 1-2 @ 4.86% ( 0-1 @ 4.72% ( 0-2 @ 2.37% ( 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 1-3 @ 1.62% ( Other @ 2.45% Total : 17.68% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 |
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 |
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 |
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 |
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 |
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 |
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 |
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 |
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 |
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 |
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 |
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 |
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 |
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 |
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 |
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 |
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 |
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 |
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