

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 44.73%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Morecambe | Draw | Swindon Town | 
| 30.11% (  -0.07) | 25.16% (  -0.21) | 44.73% (  0.29) | 
| Both teams to score 55.21% (  0.67) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 51.9% (  0.9) | 48.1% (  -0.89) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 29.74% (  0.82) | 70.26% (  -0.81) | 
| Morecambe Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 70.34% (  0.4) | 29.67% (  -0.4) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.29% (  0.49) | 65.71% (  -0.48) | 
| Swindon Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.49% (  0.51) | 21.51% (  -0.51) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.44% (  0.78) | 54.57% (  -0.77) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Morecambe | Draw | Swindon Town | 
| 1-0 @ 7.75% (  -0.2) 2-1 @ 7.24% (  0) 2-0 @ 4.71% (  -0.07) 3-1 @ 2.93% (  0.03) 3-2 @ 2.25% (  0.06) 3-0 @ 1.91% (  -0.01) Other @ 3.31% Total : 30.11% | 1-1 @ 11.91% (  -0.12) 0-0 @ 6.38% (  -0.24) 2-2 @ 5.56% (  0.09) 3-3 @ 1.15% (  0.05) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.15% | 0-1 @ 9.81% (  -0.21) 1-2 @ 9.16% (  0.05) 0-2 @ 7.53% (  -0.05) 1-3 @ 4.69% (  0.09) 0-3 @ 3.86% (  0.04) 2-3 @ 2.85% (  0.09) 1-4 @ 1.8% (  0.06) 0-4 @ 1.48% (  0.04) 2-4 @ 1.1% (  0.05) Other @ 2.47% Total : 44.73% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 73 | 50 | 23 | 84 | 
| P | Port Vale | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 80 | 
| P | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 64 | 45 | 19 | 78 | 
| 4 | Walsall | 46 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 75 | 54 | 21 | 77 | 
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 35 | 21 | 73 | 
| 6 | Notts County | 46 | 20 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 49 | 19 | 72 | 
| 7 | Chesterfield | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 70 | 
| 8 | Salford City | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 69 | 
| 9 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 61 | 67 | -6 | 68 | 
| 10 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 67 | 
| 11 | Bromley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 64 | 59 | 5 | 66 | 
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 62 | 
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 62 | 
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 60 | 
| 15 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 60 | 
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 59 | 
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 58 | 
| 18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 61 | -18 | 53 | 
| 19 | MK Dons | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 52 | 
| 20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 45 | 65 | -20 | 51 | 
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 50 | 
| 22 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 52 | 76 | -24 | 49 | 
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 42 | 
| R | Morecambe | 46 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 36 | 
| > League Two Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
