Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 54.39%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 23.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.4%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wolfsburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 54.39% ( | 22.09% ( | 23.53% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.84% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.65% ( | 39.34% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.32% ( | 61.68% ( |
| Wolfsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.53% ( | 14.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.56% ( | 42.44% ( |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.96% ( | 30.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.84% ( | 66.16% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Wolfsburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.77% ( 1-0 @ 8.4% ( 2-0 @ 8.12% ( 3-1 @ 6.29% ( 3-0 @ 5.23% ( 3-2 @ 3.79% ( 4-1 @ 3.04% ( 4-0 @ 2.53% ( 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 5-1 @ 1.18% ( 5-0 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 3.23% Total : 54.39% | 1-1 @ 10.1% ( 2-2 @ 5.87% ( 0-0 @ 4.35% ( 3-3 @ 1.52% ( Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.08% | 1-2 @ 6.08% ( 0-1 @ 5.23% ( 0-2 @ 3.14% ( 1-3 @ 2.44% ( 2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0-3 @ 1.26% ( Other @ 3.03% Total : 23.53% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 87 | 29 | 58 | 72 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 29 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 63 | 34 | 29 | 63 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 58 | 42 | 16 | 51 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 49 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 48 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 47 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 45 |
| 8 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 42 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 42 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 50 | 6 | 41 |
| 12 | Wolfsburg | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 39 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 35 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 30 |
| 15 | St Pauli | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 29 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 32 | 60 | -28 | 22 |
| 17 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 62 | -33 | 20 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 41 | 71 | -30 | 19 |
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