We said: Casa Pia 2-0 Rio Ave
Both teams enter this clash on shaky ground, but Casa Pia hold the edge, buoyed by key returns, with Fonte and Cassiano potentially bolstering the lineup, while Clayton's absence further dents Rio Ave's prospects, making a home win likely.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 38.53%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 33.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (10.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.