

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 38.53%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 33.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (7.12%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (10.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 33.68% ( | 27.79% ( | 38.53% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.23% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.38% ( | 57.61% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.61% ( | 78.38% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.95% ( | 32.05% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.48% ( | 68.52% ( |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.99% ( | 29.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.09% ( | 64.91% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 1-0 @ 10.57% ( 2-1 @ 7.45% ( 2-0 @ 6.02% ( 3-1 @ 2.83% ( 3-0 @ 2.28% ( 3-2 @ 1.75% ( Other @ 2.77% Total : 33.67% | 1-1 @ 13.09% ( 0-0 @ 9.3% ( 2-2 @ 4.61% ( Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.78% | 0-1 @ 11.5% ( 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0-2 @ 7.12% ( 1-3 @ 3.34% ( 0-3 @ 2.94% ( 2-3 @ 1.9% ( 1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0-4 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 1.68% Total : 38.53% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 26 | 59 | 78 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 82 | 26 | 56 | 78 |
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 60 | 29 | 31 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 53 | 27 | 26 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 46 | 33 | 13 | 54 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 51 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 36 | 5 | 44 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 36 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 36 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 34 |
| 13 | Nacional | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 45 | -21 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 24 |
| 17 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 53 | -31 | 24 |
| 18 | AVS | 32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 57 | -33 | 24 |
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