

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 87.83%. A draw had a probability of 8.5% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 3.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.88%) and 4-0 (9.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.98%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-2 (1.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Benfica in this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Boavista |
| 87.83% ( | 8.47% ( | 3.7% ( |
| Both teams to score 43.8% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.02% ( | 24.97% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 55.12% ( | 44.88% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.36% ( | 3.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 84.33% ( | 15.66% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.45% ( | 54.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 12.39% ( | 87.6% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Boavista |
| 3-0 @ 12.03% ( 2-0 @ 10.88% ( 4-0 @ 9.97% ( 3-1 @ 7.29% ( 5-0 @ 6.62% ( 2-1 @ 6.6% ( 1-0 @ 6.56% ( 4-1 @ 6.05% ( 5-1 @ 4.01% ( 6-0 @ 3.66% ( 6-1 @ 2.22% ( 3-2 @ 2.21% ( 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 7-0 @ 1.73% ( 5-2 @ 1.22% ( 7-1 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 3.9% Total : 87.82% | 1-1 @ 3.98% ( 2-2 @ 2% ( 0-0 @ 1.98% ( Other @ 0.51% Total : 8.47% | 1-2 @ 1.21% ( 0-1 @ 1.2% ( Other @ 1.29% Total : 3.7% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 75 | 24 | 51 | 69 |
| 2 | Benfica | 28 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 23 | 46 | 68 |
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 25 | 30 | 59 |
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 57 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 46 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 43 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 40 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 35 |
| 11 | Nacional | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 29 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 29 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 18 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 47 | -28 | 18 |
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