

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 53.47%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 20.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (7.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Boavista |
| 53.47% ( | 25.88% ( | 20.66% ( |
| Both teams to score 44.43% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.09% ( | 57.91% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.38% ( | 78.62% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.24% ( | 21.76% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.06% ( | 54.95% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.78% ( | 43.22% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.53% ( | 79.48% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Boavista |
| 1-0 @ 14.34% ( 2-0 @ 10.93% ( 2-1 @ 9.18% ( 3-0 @ 5.56% ( 3-1 @ 4.67% ( 4-0 @ 2.12% ( 3-2 @ 1.96% ( 4-1 @ 1.78% Other @ 2.93% Total : 53.46% | 1-1 @ 12.03% ( 0-0 @ 9.4% ( 2-2 @ 3.85% ( Other @ 0.59% Total : 25.88% | 0-1 @ 7.89% ( 1-2 @ 5.05% ( 0-2 @ 3.31% ( 1-3 @ 1.41% ( 2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0-3 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 1% Total : 20.66% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 27 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 73 | 23 | 50 | 65 |
| 2 | Benfica | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 62 | 20 | 42 | 62 |
| 3 | Porto | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 53 | 21 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Braga | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 23 | 21 | 56 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 46 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 39 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 36 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Nacional | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 29 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 29 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 23 |
| 16 | AVS | 27 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 17 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 46 | -29 | 15 |
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