Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 69.99%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 11.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 0-1 (4.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Forest Green Rovers | 
| 69.99% (  0.04) | 18.43% (  -0.03) | 11.58% (  -0.01) | 
| Both teams to score 46.89% (  0.06) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 56.04% (  0.09) | 43.97% (  -0.09) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 33.65% (  0.09) | 66.35% (  -0.09) | 
| Bolton Wanderers Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 88.63% (  0.04) | 11.37% (  -0.03) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 63.92% (  0.08) | 36.09% (  -0.08) | 
| Forest Green Rovers Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 52.91% (  0.05) | 47.1% (  -0.04) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.44% (  0.04) | 82.56% (  -0.03) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Forest Green Rovers | 
| 2-0 @ 12.65% (  -0.02) 1-0 @ 11.64% (  -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.53% 3-0 @ 9.17% (  0) 3-1 @ 6.91% (  0.01) 4-0 @ 4.99% (  0.01) 4-1 @ 3.76% (  0.01) 3-2 @ 2.6% (  0.01) 5-0 @ 2.17% (  0.01) 5-1 @ 1.63% (  0.01) 4-2 @ 1.41% (  0.01) Other @ 3.52% Total : 69.98% | 1-1 @ 8.77% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.35% (  -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.59% (  0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 18.43% | 0-1 @ 4.03% (  -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.3% (  -0) 0-2 @ 1.52% (  -0) 2-3 @ 0.9% (  0) Other @ 1.83% Total : 11.58% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 31 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 58 | 22 | 36 | 68 | 
| 2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 32 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 32 | 25 | 68 | 
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 32 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 60 | 
| 4 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 59 | 
| 5 | Derby CountyDerby | 31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 57 | 
| 6 | Barnsley | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 56 | 
| 7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 31 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 29 | 15 | 53 | 
| 8 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 32 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 39 | 34 | 5 | 48 | 
| 9 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 30 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 47 | 
| 10 | Portsmouth | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 42 | 
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 40 | 
| 12 | Port Vale | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 40 | 
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 39 | 
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 39 | 
| 15 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 30 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 39 | 
| 16 | Bristol Rovers | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 38 | 
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 36 | 
| 18 | Burton Albion | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 34 | 
| 19 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 33 | 
| 20 | Morecambe | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 52 | -19 | 31 | 
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 26 | 47 | -21 | 30 | 
| 22 | MK Dons | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 29 | 
| 23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 29 | 
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 22 | 
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